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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."